New Delhi: India’s nominal GDP growth is projected to rise to around 11 per cent in FY27, with real growth estimated at 7.2 per cent, supported by domestic credit-led consumption and continued policy support, according to a report.
The report from SBI Mutual Fund said that it is “constructive on growth” in the medium term with structural reforms and premiumisation driving the outlook, though global slowdown and geopolitics remain key risks. Real GDP growth in FY26 averaged 8 per cent year‑on‑year in the first half, while nominal growth was subdued at 8.8 per cent.
The fund house expected inflation to mean‑revert to about 4 per cent in FY27, with the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) likely to keep policy on a long pause unless global growth deteriorates.
The mutual fund highlighted recent liquidity measures, including a Rs 2 trillion Open Market Operations (OMO) round and a $10 billion buy‑sell swap in mid-January.
“Rural spending outlook is modestly positive as welfare measures and low inflation mitigate the kharif income setback. A positive development of the India-US trade deal could only be mildly positive for the growth outlook, as the country still faces stiff competition from rising dominance in Chinese exports,” the report noted.
The fiscal deficit is projected to ease to 4.2 per cent in FY27 from a likely 4.4 per cent in FY26, though state deficits remain elevated. Government bond supply could rise to Rs. 29 trillion, keeping demand-supply dynamics tight.
The rupee’s near 5 per cent depreciation in 2025 was attributed to hedging demand that has pushed up forward premiums in India and driven the Indian fixed income yields higher too, the report noted.
Typically, India’s lower inflation relative to the US, stable crude prices, fiscal discipline, and current account deficit (CAD) under 1 per cent of GDP support Indian assets and the rupee.
Bottom-up focus on consumption, financials, and select industrials would be the key, the fund house suggested.
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—IANS
