New Delhi: Despite a slowdown in real GDP growth, per capita nominal GDP in India is expected to increase significantly in FY25, by at least Rs 35,000 more than FY23, economists have said.

The National Statistical Office (NSO)’s first advance estimate (AE) of GDP for FY25 indicates GDP growth at 6.4 percent. Gross value added (GVA) growth is also estimated at 6.4 percent. Nominal GDP growth is estimated to remain flattish, increasing by 9.7 percent in FY25 (9.6 percent in FY24).

“Historically, the difference between RBI’s estimate and NSO’s estimate is always in the range of 20-30 bps; hence, the 6.4 percent estimate of FY25 is along expected and reasonable lines. We, however, believe that GDP growth for FY25 could be around 6.3 per cent, with a downward bias,” said Dr Soumya Kanti Ghosh, Group Chief Economic Adviser, State Bank of India.

“Buoyed by robust policy measures and overlapping phy-gital public infra creation, in lockstep with formalisation of finance, Agriculture and Allied Activities are likely to grow by 3.8 per cent in FY25 (1.4 percent previous year),” Dr Ghosh mentioned.

The service sector, on the other hand, is likely to grow by 7.2 percent in FY25, compared to 7.6 percent in FY24.

The heads that have positively contributed include government consumption, which has grown by 8.5 percent in nominal terms (4.1 percent in real terms), while exports have also held the forte, with a positive growth of 8 percent (5.9 percent in real terms).

According to Nikhil Gupta, MOFSL Group’s chief economist, NSO estimates suggest a revival in consumption and moderation in investments in the second half of FY25.

“Private consumption is likely to grow 7.8 per cent YoY in 2H FY25 (vs 6.7 per cent/4 percent in 1H/FY24), govt consumption is estimated to grow 6.1 percent in 2H (vs 2 per cent/2.5 per cent), and total investment is seen to increase 5.8 per cent vs 6.5 per cent/9.4 percent,” said Gupta.

Rajani Sinha, Chief Economist, CareEdge Ratings, said that consumption growth is estimated to accelerate in H2 compared to H1.

“Healthy agri growth and likely moderation in food inflation should help boost consumption in the months to come. Sustained consumption growth will also help pull in private investment,” she mentioned.

 

 

 

 

 

—IANS