New Delhi: The BJP demolished the Congress and other Opposition parties in the Maharashtra and Haryana Assembly elections.
The party romped to victory in both states and recently formed the governments there.
The Matrize Survey has provided some insights into what led to the BJP’s significant triumph in these states despite the party’s relatively lower performance in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.
The survey has highlighted several factors, including Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s influence and the Congress-led Opposition’s failure to effectively challenge the BJP.
The agency has also spotlighted shifts in voter sentiment between the two elections.
The Congress’s bid to capitalise on the narrative of ‘constitutional changes’ also failed to impact the Assembly elections.
The survey was carried out between November 25, 2024 and December 14, 2024, with a sample size of 76,830 in Maharashtra and 53,647 in Haryana.
Key findings from the Matrize Survey
- The enduring popularity of PM Modi
Despite the BJP winning only 240 seats in the Lok Sabha elections this year, PM Modi continued to enjoy massive popularity among voters in both Maharashtra and Haryana, says the survey. His image as a strong and influential leader remained intact. This is a very important finding, as the survey reveals that voters in both states maintained an unwavering trust in PM Modi, which played a pivotal role in the Assembly election outcomes. Around 55 percent of voters surveyed in Maharashtra found a jump in PM Modi’s popularity. Similarly, 53 percent of Haryana voters surveyed saw growth in PM Modi’s charisma.
- Jolt to Congress’ narrative on the Constitution
One of the most significant factors identified in the Matrize Survey was the setback to the Congress’ narrative, which its leader, Rahul Gandhi, spun during the Lok Sabha elections.
The Congress had built a narrative that the Modi government intended to change the Constitution. This claim seemed to have garnered some traction initially during the parliamentary elections. However, it failed to create any impact during the Assembly elections in Maharashtra and Haryana. In both states, Congress’ attempts to push issues such as constitutional changes, farm laws, and wrestlers’ problems were largely ineffective. Voters did not view these issues as significant during the Assembly elections, contributing to a shift in support towards the BJP.
- Voter perception of Congress leadership
Another important finding of the survey is a major lack of trust in Congress MP Rahul Gandhi, who was seen as the face of the Opposition in Maharashtra and Haryana. His failure to present a credible alternative to PM Modi also led to the opposition’s poor show. Voters expressed doubts about the Congress’ leadership, with Rahul Gandhi perceived as disconnected from ground realities, especially in comparison to PM Modi’s strong, decisive image. This factor played a significant role in the BJP’s commanding victory in these states.
- Shift in voter sentiment between Lok Sabha and Assembly elections
This also suggests that many voters in Maharashtra and Haryana, who made the mistake of not voting for the BJP during the Lok Sabha elections, corrected their decision in the Assembly polls. A key reason behind this shift was the growing confidence in PM Modi’s leadership and the central government’s actions, which voters felt contributed positively to their lives. The Opposition’s inability to offer a coherent and convincing alternative led to a clear preference for the BJP in the state elections.
- BJP’s strategic messaging and leadership
The Matrize Survey also highlighted the powerful impact of BJP’s messaging during the Assembly elections. The slogan “Ek Hain to Safe Hain (When united, we are safe)” found the approval of voters, especially in Maharashtra and Haryana. This narrative emphasised stability, national security, and economic growth under PM Modi’s leadership, positioning BJP as the safer choice.
On the other hand, the Congress’ divisive rhetoric and internal leadership struggles only alienated voters. The failure to effectively challenge the BJP’s narrative was evident, especially given the public’s disenchantment with the Congress’ internal factionalism.
- Local leadership and organisational factors
In Haryana, the leadership change from Chief Minister Manohar Lal Khattar to a new set of faces also contributed to the BJP’s success. The survey found that the switch in leadership helped the BJP regain trust, with 44 percent of respondents acknowledging that the leadership change had a significant positive impact. Moreover, the presence of strong local BJP leaders and a well-organised campaign helped the party build a solid base, further ensuring its victory.
- The role of government schemes and local support
The BJP’s focus on local issues and welfare schemes also played a crucial role in obtaining voter support. In both states, the BJP government’s initiatives, particularly in the fields of agriculture, infrastructure and rural development, had a positive effect. These schemes impressed the voters, who felt they had benefited from government policies.
With all these details in view, the Matrize Survey has given a clear picture of why the BJP won the Assembly elections in Maharashtra and Haryana.
Several interlinked factors contributed to this triumph: The enduring popularity of PM Modi and the continued trust in his leadership, a significant setback to the Opposition’s narrative, particularly the Congress’ attempt to capitalise on constitutional changes, which failed to make any impact in the Assembly elections, voter correction of their previous Lok Sabha mistake, especially in light of the BJP’s successful governance and message of stability, and the BJP’s effective use of leadership changes, messaging, and welfare schemes to consolidate support.
–IANS
Caption : New Delhi: Prime Minister Narendra Modi at Hyderabad House prior to meeting with the President of Sri Lanka, H.E. Anura Kumara Dissanayake, in New Delhi on Monday, December 16, 2024. (Photo: IANS/Qamar Sibtain)
