By Apurva Bhatt

The monsoon is expected to hit Kerala on its usual date of June 1. Although the country's weather forecaster will formally announce the date of monsoon's onset on May 15, officials indicated the possibility of its arrival on time based on wind movements and its progress towards the Indian subcontinent. 

Taking the cue from last year's actions to deal with monsoon deficit, the government has planned contingency measures. "Our contingency measures are ready for 580 districts. We had faced a similar situation last year. We have, accordingly, asked states to be ready with their support structure on the ground," said an official. 

The IMD had on April 22 predicted that India would receive 'below normal' monsoon rainfall during June-September this year—a scenario which may affect summer (kharif) crops and worsen the overall situation, marred by recent unseasonal rains and hailstorms. 

"The monsoon seasonal rainfall is likely to be 93% of the long period average (below normal scenario) with a model error of plus or minus 5%," the IMD said in its first forecast. 

The long period average (LPA) of seasonal rainfall over the country for the period 1951-2000 is 89 cm which is taken as standard base to categorize the monsoon. Rainfall range of 90-96% of the LPA is considered 'below normal' whereas 96-104% range is taken as 'normal' monsoon. 

Last year too, IMD had predicted 'below normal' monsoon rainfall which eventually turned out be worse, recording 'deficient' (below 90% of the LPA) rainfall during June-September 2014. There was a 12% deficit of monsoon rainfall last year but timely action from the agriculture ministry and states minimized the impact. 

IMD will come out with its updates comprising region-wise predictions in its second stage forecast in June. Initial predictions indicated that there may be less rain in northwest and central parts of the country as compared to south India. IMD officials indicated that 70% of El Nino scenario will continue during the monsoon and the expected lower rainfall could be because of this.