Umang Papneja

 

India’s 2014 general election defied all predictions and after a long time a single party has secured a majority in the Lok Sabha. Political stability has created conviction among market players, that India’s new government is well-positioned to pursue reforms and there would be a strong rebound in the economic growth going forward. India’s growth potential has been constrained by a number of factors linked to the socialist and centralized control model that India has adopted all these years. Modi is a man who believes in untying these knots and it is fair to assume that the policy environment will turn progressive and conducive and that will drive a turnaround in business sentiment and investment cycle.

 

With a decisive mandate, the NDA government can implement strong reforms and get the economy again back on track, which will attract additional inflows into equities. In 2012 and 2013 FII inflows averaged US$ 22bn annually, and this year till 18th June 2014 we have received around US$ 10bn. This number can significantly rise, as it is still around the same run-rate of the last two years. Further, domestic household savings have dipped from 7.3% in FY08 to a dismal 0.5% in FY13. Both domestic investors and FIIs are expected to increase allocations over time. This note will try and highlight which sections of the markets will do well in the next few years and how one can position your portfolio in these times.

 

Midcaps- expected to rerate: Good quality mid/small cap companies are highly geared to an economic recovery. A revival in economic growth usually leads to a sharp increase in their sales/earnings. An increase in sales/earnings growth is typically accompanied by a re-rating in the valuation multiples. The multiplier effect of a sharp increase in sales/earnings and re-rating of the valuation multiple leads to significant run up in the prices of midcap stocks. It is not surprising that Midcaps have outperformed large caps in periods of steady economic growth. In the Bull Market from 2003-07 the CNX Midcap delivered a CAGR of 55% against a CAGR of 41% of Nifty.

 

Cyclical stocks do well during a recovery: History has shown that cyclical stocks (Capital Goods, Metals, Banking, infrastructure etc.) are some of the best performing stocks in an up cycle, owing to the expansion in earnings as well as rerating of the P/E (Price Earnings multiple). Most of the cyclicals have witnessed earnings drop of 40% to 60% from their peaks and their valuation ratios are at the lower end of their trading bands.

 

PSUs – future jewels: PSU reforms are likely to be among the first tasks for the newly installed Modi Government, given the new Premier’s stellar track record in his home state of Gujarat. The knock-on effect on the economy can be significant, since many PSUs operate in segments of vital national importance. PSUs lagged the wider equity market both in terms of net profit growth and stock price performance. Net profit CAGR of 81 listed Central PSUs was 12.5% in the last decade (FY03-FY13) versus 19.2% for BSE100 companies. Net profit CAGR of 52 listed non-banking PSUs was even lower at 9.8% CAGR over the past 10 years. This is expected to change for the better and PSUs could become a larger part of total market capitalization in the future.

 

The above three themes are expected to do well, but investing cent percent across them may not be prudent. Investors should take a diversified approach across sectors but should have overweight positions in these. While investing in Mutual Funds, one can allocate to schemes which are positioned for an economic recovery.

 

The other decision revolves around how much equity allocation is ideal at this time. Just as investors may have been overinvested in equity at the peak of the cycle in 2007, they are probably under-invested now. Investors need to consider the following while taking a relook at their Equity allocation:

 

Long-term Capital Appreciation: investors allocate funds to equity for long-term appreciation of capital. Though ‘Balanced’ investors traditionally invest approximately 45% – 55% of their portfolio in equities, given the current scenario, most of their portfolios seem to have only between 10% – 20% allocation. A similar story seems to be playing out across other classes of investors, e.g. Conservative, Aggressive, etc. Hence, we urge investors to start taking quick steps towards reaching their long-term allocation.

 

Risk-Reward premium: The rapidity of equity upsides, especially in a revival story, can surprise most market participants. Opportunistic investors have already started increasing their allocations, as there are encouraging signs of economic recovery on the horizon. This was clearly visible in increase in gross and net inflows into Equity Mutual Funds in the month of May and also June till date. Smart investors are finding that the risk-reward balance is tilted in favor of significant upside potential versus limited downside risks from this level, and accordingly increase their current allocation to equity.

 

Eventually, what is the ‘correct’ allocation to equity is a question each investor must answer for herself/himself. However, the guiding principles above could help investors overcome extreme apathy towards equity investing over the last few years and plan for increasing equity allocation.

 

(This is the personal opinion expressed by the columnist; Media Eye does not necessarily share his viewpoints.  The author is the Chief Investment Officer, IIFL Private Wealth Management: Editor)