India has had a healthy monsoon this year and received 7% excess rainfall overall, said the Ministry of Earth Sciences, Government of India. Monsoons are likely to continue with more rain predicted from the third week of September. IMD’s accuracy in forecasting heavy rainfall has improved to over 80%.
Dr. M. Rajeevan, Secretary, Ministry of Earth Sciences said, plentiful and spread of southwest monsoon this year should help farmers and the output must be very good. It will also help the Indian economy, though exact quantification cannot be made at this moment.”
Dr. M. Mohapatra, Director General of the IMD, said that the country is likely to see normal to above normal rainfall in September, though in the second week of September, monsoon rain is likely to be deficient in most parts of the country, including northwest and central India. But it is likely to resume after September 17, he added. The usual date for monsoon to begin withdrawing is September 17.
Dr. M. Mohapatra pointed out that the IMD in its weekly weather update mentioned that withdrawal of monsoon may begin from western parts of Rajasthan in the week ending September 18. But we are also expecting a low-pressure area to develop over west central Bay of Bengal around that time. He said, adding that while the withdrawal of monsoon may begin, but we are still studying as to when it’s likely to completely withdraw. We are expecting normal to above normal rain in Kerala, Karnataka and coastal areas of Maharashtra around and after September 17, he said. In other words, though the rainfall activity has declined in September as compared to August and is now below normal, rains will revive in the next few days as fresh weather systems are developing, he said.
