For the full fiscal 2013, the CAD stood at a high of 4.8 per cent of the GDP, which again was an unexpected improvement from a consenus 5.2 per cent, but still higher than the previous fiscal when it was 4.2 per cent, according to the data released by the RBI two days in advance. The only tangible action the RBI did this year was that it released the data before the market hourse Friday, which also led to massive 2.75 percent rally or 520 points on the Sensex. While last year it talked down and down the rupee, this year, the RBI was conspicuous by its silence as there was not a single comment from the RBI since mid-May, when the rupee began to get battered on worries about US Fed turning its liquidity tap. The RBI action came a day after the rupee plunged to its life-time low and breached the psychological mark of 60 to the dollar and closed at 60.72 to the dollar, after plummeting to 60.78 intra-day despite the central bank intervening thrice in the market on June 26.
In comparison, the Thai baht lost 5.8 per cent in the quarter, the Philippine peso shed 5.6 per cent, the South Korean won lost 2.7 per cent, the Singaporean dollar lost 1.9 per cent, and the Malaysian ringgit slid 2.5 per cent. Many traders said on June 26 they had shorted the rupee and had put a stop-loss at 60. So once it breached the psychological level, it soon slipped further to a low of 60.78. Since May 27 alone, FIIs have pulled out nearly $8 billion, $7 billion in June alone, from the domestic debt and equities after pumping in over $15 billion into the country since January. Analysts say the rupee could see some consolidation in the near term, with the Unilever’s $5.5 billion open offer for HUL and Diageo open offer United Spirits would bring in good dollars coupled with the government reform measures like gas and coal pricing and getting stalled projects restarted.
